tech
April 2, 2026
Why probability, not averages, is reshaping AI decision-making
What is it worth to increase your chance of success? Or to reduce the chance of a costly failure? For most of modern history, we have not been able to answer those questions clearly. We have relied on averages: simple, clean, and often misleading.
TL;DR
- Traditional decision-making relies on averages, which can be misleading.
- ChanceOmeters are new AI-powered tools that directly measure uncertainty and provide probabilities.
- Accounting for uncertainty changes decision-making, moving beyond maximizing averages to optimizing probabilities.
- Uncertainty can be harnessed to create value, such as recouping accumulated contingency funds in budgeting.
- The capability to model and combine uncertainties emerged on Wall Street and is now being adapted for broader use.
- Interactive apps, combined with AI, offer a powerful new way to reason about the future by reflecting how risks interact.
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