tech
Morgan Stanley mapped 3 AI futures. One company wins them all.
Morgan Stanley mapped 3 AI futures. Here's why Nvidia and the cloud giants could win no matter what happens.
TL;DR
- Morgan Stanley identified three scenarios for the AI market: closed, hybrid, and open.
- Companies building the computing infrastructure for AI are likely to succeed regardless of the scenario.
- In a closed scenario, proprietary models lead, favoring cloud providers (Amazon, Google) and chip/infrastructure suppliers (Nvidia, Bloom Energy).
- A hybrid world sees businesses using premium closed models for complex tasks and cheaper open models for routine ones, benefiting cloud providers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) and software firms (Datadog, Palantir, Crowdstrike, Okta, ServiceNow).
- An open scenario, where open models match proprietary ones, could lead to broader AI deployment on local devices, benefiting hardware makers (Dell, HP, Apple), security software, and edge computing, while Microsoft and Chinese tech giants (MiniMax, Z.ai, Alibaba, Tencent) also stand to gain.
- Nvidia is identified as a consistent winner across all three scenarios due to the demand for AI servers and networking.
- Cloud giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are prominent in all scenarios, with their specific advantages shifting based on model dominance.